Saturday, October 20, 2007

My Case for the Good Doctor

In response to this piece by

Let me first start by saying that I am biased in favor of Ron Paul. I plan on caucusing for him in the state of Minnesota. That said let me try to be as objective as possible in defending my case for the good doctor.

The link posted above is a Ranking of the most hated candidates by Zogby International. The winner of this poll is none other than Fmr. First-Lady-In-Chief, Hillary Clinton with 50% of respondents saying they would definitely not vote for the former first lady.

Forget the fact that not all the information in the poll is correct. This poll lists Ron Paul as a Democrat which is incorrect. This information is irrelevant except for the fact that it is evidence that Ron Paul still isn't entirely understood across the country. Those of us following closely already know this.

The interesting thing about this poll is that Ron Paul is ranked number 4 on this list. What does this mean? Well for starters Paul is the first Republican candidate on the list. Further this is a list of candidates chosen out of the entire list of candidates by both Republicans and Democrats, primary voters and non-primary voters.

I make the case that this poll is more correct than the primary opinion polls as in it is not as limiting in its data set. For example, the primary opinion polls limit the data set by restricting respondents to known registered primary voters. This list of data is heavily skewed on the Republican side by Bush Supporters.

Since Bush ran unopposed it only stands to reason the this list of likely voters would tend to reflect the most Bush-like candidate. Let us assume the vote is split randomly between the three "top-tier" establishment candidates which is what is being reflected, in my own opinion.

I honestly believe that Ron Paul is going to take the primary for the simple fact that he is the only candidate with real grass-roots, boots on the ground support. He has won every post-debate phone in poll, he receives the most Internet traffic and chatter than any candidate. He has won more straw-polls that any of the other candidates with the greatest average of support and the greatest number of head-to-head wins than any candidate -- let us not also forget the fact that people actually show up to his rallies in droves. This data seems more relevant to me because it actually measure the motivation of candidate support which is key to winning primaries. If people aren't motivated to act in their best interest they will not vote.

Let's assume that Ron Paul has enough support to win the GOP nomination which I believe to be the case. Let us also assume, unless the polls are extremely flawed, that Hillary has this nomination locked up. If the choice for the 2008 presidential election comes down to Ron Paul vs. Hillary Clinton, the outcome based on this Zogby poll, is that Ron Paul wins.

This is how it is going to happen. Ron Paul takes the election by a landslide.

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